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Good morning everyone!

Just a quick post today to let you know that if you’re going to be down in the Miami area next week and attending the Future Proof Citywide conference, I’d love for you to stop by and say hello!

I’ll be down there from this Sunday evening through the morning of Wednesday, March 19th visiting with financial advisors, money managers, RIAs and others. They’re expecting more than 2,000 people will attend, so it’ll be a great event for networking and meeting some of the industry’s smartest minds!

If you’re a money manager looking for ways to gain exposure for your products and/or an advisor looking for ways to serve your client base, we may be able to help each other out!

Hope to see you there!

I don’t want to ignore the markets altogether right now, so here’s a few of my thoughts on what I’m seeing right now.

Risk-Off Is Still The Pulse, But It’s Going To Be Choppy

Over the past few weeks, we’ve seen a fairly decisive risk-off pivot across the financial markets. Utilities, consumer staples, healthcare, real estate, value, low volatility, dividend stocks, Treasuries and gold have all been leaders as growth, tech and the magnificent 7 stocks turn sour.

Over the past week, things have balanced out somewhat and the VIX has come down a bit, but conditions are still tense. Given the sharpness of the recent decline, there was almost inevitably going to be a short-term mean reversion, but I don’t see it lasting.

The underlying economic environment supporting this market is still trending in the wrong direction. The Atlanta Fed is still forecasting a -2.4% print in Q1. Inflation ticked lower in February, which is a good sign, but how much of it was due to cooling demand. The trade war continues to change on a daily basis and is making it impossible to know anything with a reasonable level of confidence.

This is probably the first time since the onset of the COVID pandemic that there’s been a real sense that the party could be ending. Trade conditions, lower government spending and job losses are all contributing to the general sense of bearishness.

In these environments, market corrections (if you believe we’re heading in that direction) are never a straight line down. There will be big up days and big down days along the way. A 1% gain for the S&P 500 doesn’t mean that the bull market is resuming and a 1% loss doesn’t mean a bear market is imminent.

Volatility is the key. The VIX nearly touched 30 earlier this week. It’s at 24 as I write this. As long as that remains elevated, the regime isn’t over.

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The Market Is Declining Due To Sentiment More Than Anything

I’ve noted this before and I’ll mention it again. We can blame tariffs, inflation, GDP or about a half dozen other things for why the market is correcting at the moment. In reality, we mostly blame investors for simply getting scared and looking to dump risk.

In bumpier markets of the recent past, it’s just been select defensive assets that have outperformed. Utilities and gold, but not Treasuries and low volatility. Healthcare and value, but not bonds. You get the picture. This time around, however, EVERYTHING risk-off is leading. That’s a sign of broad negative sentiment where investors are doing more of heading to the exits as opposed to just tilting their allocations.

That’s why I think this current downturn has legs. The market was able to rely on the magnificent 7 to hold the market up before even though most of the rest of the market was stagnant. In 2025, tech is the worst performing S&P 500 sector and the mag 7 is one of the worst performing themes.

A couple things I’m watching right now as sentiment gauges.

Long-term Treasury yields have been rangebound over the past couple of weeks, which confirms the short-term notion that things have somewhat balanced out. Making a run at the 4% level would indicate to me that bearish sentiment is still in control.

Also, high yield spreads are definitely moving higher, but not to the degree that would suggest that alarms are going off. This is the one measure that has consistently failed to confirm any risk-off move over the past two years. If this continues to blow out, it’s at a 5-month high currently, it would be the last domino to fall.

Oversold Conditions Are Emerging In Many Areas Of The Market

If you’re a follower of technical indicators and mean reversion signals, this might be a good time to get back in.

The major averages are all either at or very near oversold levels. Some of the biggest cyclical industries are well into oversold territory and potentially positioned for a bounce off the bottom here.

The future path of these sectors is obviously going to be heavily reliant on the path of the economy and all of the factors I talked about earlier. There’s some value potential in some of these industries if sentiment reverses, but I’d be hesitant to add much risk here with the economy trending negatively and the trade war just creating confusion and whipsawing the markets.

Overall, I still think dividend stocks are looking really good here. Healthcare is still a favorite of mine in environments like this. I wouldn’t rule out a short-term comeback for the magnificent 7 if we get a bit of good news. International stocks are looking a little overcooked for now, but I think they’re still positioned better than the S&P 500 for the rest of 2025.